On the fire in the forests and draught

Hamid Sadeghipour

                             Date: 08.08.2018

On the fire in the forests and draught.

I read the bad weather in Germany, France, Spain and Portugal, as I follow Germany news due to working some years with Germen. Let me first to tell you some of my notes on “The decision book”: Fifty Models for Strategic Thinking, written by Mikael Krogerus and Roman Tschaeppeler like:

In each model, what we want and what we need depends on the user and his expectations.

Take a Cartesian coordinates, two perpendicular lines with positive x and y and negative x and y. you have 4 parts: 1) +x and +y

2) +x and negative y; -x and positive y

3) -x and -y

Please, take x- axis as your abilities and y- axis as your efforts and challenges:

The best points of decision with regard to abilities and challenges giving positive results are in part no.: 1

In our actions we need moderation of our abilities and our challenges

The opportunities are in part no.: 2

Here, we can say what we believe is might be good or bad, in the future, but need changes to improve it

In the part 3 the results are very bad and should be changed.

Arthur Schopenhauer says: our work does not consist what other people didn’t pay attention, but, what everyone saw it and we need to work on it in a new manner of thinking.

The best model is when everyone agrees.

Pareto principle tells us 20% of what we do has 80% influence on the trends. Therefore, we need to know this 20% of our actions.

In the case of the crisis the weak points show themselves. The site of “ spaceweather.com” recently published again the trend of solar activities. Less sun activities and less particles arriving to the earth atmosphere. Spaceweather.com says solar storms clouds such as coronal mass ejection sweeps aside cosmic rays when they pass by the earth. The curves of variation of cosmic rays’ flux and precipitations between 1979 to 1999 show for latitudes 45 – 90 degree south is almost reverse of each other. Lower cosmic ray’s flux is equal to more precipitation. PDF in 4 pages written by Dominic R. Kniveton. Cosmic rays are energy producers warming the atmosphere and are less reflective by it. When you produce electricity by renewable energies and you have no pollution and wind generators avoid air circulations and you have less winds, it is clear by some accident like Botswana meteorite fall you have dramatic changes. We should always take the optimum for our activities and have considerations on future.

In the stock exchange theory, some people say you need a basket or pannier to collect the stocks like you go to the vegetables market and you buy several items for salad, soup, etc. Some other say you should concentrate yourself on fewer articles and deal with known companies for you. Or divide the investment in half and following the two policies. Always try to decide correctly with some future predictions. There are some software on market share dealing. You should maybe create one for this purpose.